TrendForce projects global notebook shipments may decline by a low single-digit percentage in 2027. This downturn could worsen to a high-single-digit range if manufacturers pass rising production costs to consumers instead of absorbing them or adjusting specs.
Production outside is expected to hit 24% in 2025 before dropping to 21% in 2026 and potentially falling below 20% by 2027. Meanwhile, CPU, , and costs are set to comprise 68% of the bill of materials for $900 mainstream laptops by Q3 2026.
Tight DRAM supply driven by AI demand remains a concern for the industry, though availability may improve in late 2027. These supply chain shifts and component price pressures will dictate whether the market sees a small or significant decline.